In case you haven't heard, the oil is running out.
You know, the oil that's used to make gasoline and is the basis of the global economy? Without it, we can't transport goods, fertilize our crops (fertilizers are petroleum-based), heat our homes, manufacture products or cart us butts around town. It's running out at an alarming rate because we're not finding any new sources of easy-to-extract oil that can possibly keep up with the demand we're placing on the supply. And pretty soon, we're just going to run out of the free-flowing, easy-to-extract stuff. Oil from oil sands and oil shale cost a lot more to extract than we're used to, but more importantly, the price of oil from these resources will be reflected in the inability of these new technologies to keep up with current oil demand, even with the investment of billions of dollars in R&D.
Yesterday we watched a fictionalized depiction on the Science Channel of what it would be like if the world encountered an oil crisis eight years from now, in the year 2016. The program was called “What If: We Run Out of Oil.”
This was a different kind of analysis and presentation of peak oil. Unlike the documentaries “End of Suburbia” and “Crude Awakening,” which feature a line-up of experts, analysts and oil industry professionals talking about why we have surpassed the peak of worldwide oil production and what this means for the next 20-50 years, this program actually depicted how it might impact a fictional family living in Minneapolis suburb in the year 2016.
This program is a cautionary tale to inspire people to begin to plan for what they can do in their own lives today to brace themselves for the inevitable day when the oil supply dwindles worldwide and price and supply are on opposite sides of the spectrum.
We cannot continue the rate of growth and resource-use based on a resource that is finite and not sustainable. No significant oil fields have been discovered in the last 25 years. The last five years has been the poorest in new oil procurement since WWII. What if the demand continues on its upward trend? How long before we hit the wall?
One of the most shocking statistics from the “non-fiction” portion of the program was that Americans, per capita, burn 25 barrels of oil per year, compared to Europeans, who burn about 11 barrels of oil per year. In China, where only 2 barrels of oil are burned per capita right now, demand is spiraling upward as more and more Chinese buy cars, and cities become industrialized. But right now, we are still the real gluttons for oil, burning 25% of the world’s oil supply while consisting of only 5% of the world’s population.
It’s going to hurt BAD when oil prices skyrocket in this country. Simply trying to maintain our normal lifestyles is going to take a tremendous amount of time and effort. For example, if we have to wait an hour in line to fill up our gas tank, or if we have to start walking or bicycling to get groceries, or we’ll have to bus or bike to work. We may have to move closer to where we work or find a different job altogether (preferably one where we can work from home).
Dave and I started to think about what we can still do to prepare for the next 10-15 years so that the crisis doesn’t hit us so hard. A few of these things we’ve already done, but we are far from being well prepared. Here’s how we think we can lessen the impact of the crisis, at least somewhat:
1. Super-insulate the house to save on heat and cooling loss (check).
2. Replace gas-guzzling vehicles with energy efficient vehicles, diesels, or hybrids (check).
3. Think about an alternate source of heating besides central heating or an oil furnace. Get a wood-burning fireplace insert or wood stove with a blower which can heat an entire house with carbon neutral efficiency (check).
4. Equip house with solar panels.
5. Upgrade hybrid to an electric car and run it on the solar-powered electricity in house, which would in effect be a zero emission car, minus the energy it took to manufacture it and the solar panels of course.
6. Shop at the local farmer’s market or local grocer during spring and summer months and then freeze surplus vegetables for winter months (check).
7. Start a backyard garden and use your own compost to fertilize it, and freeze or jar surplus vegetables. (check)
8. Buy property that has a large lot for gardening but a smaller house, and as close to town as possible or close to work.
We began to think about the things we could collectively do as a community to lessen the impact peak oil crisis will have in our own neighborhood. This is a fantasy of how to modify suburbia so that we can lessen the need for long-distance transport, use less oil and gas for everyday living, and bring entertainment and work close to home.
1. Neighborhoods could adopt a community garden area, or residents could set aside portions of their front or back yards for gardening if they wanted to. Food could be shared, exchanged or bartered. Neighbors could offer tips and share garden tools and compost.
2. Neighbors could start clubs and get-togethers to keep entertainment closer to home: book clubs, movie nights, potlucks, card or game nights, walking or running clubs, etc.
3. One pickup truck or large SUV could be leased or purchased by a neighborhood and kept for use so that people who worry about needing a truck occasionally could simply borrow the community truck to do hauling.
4. Develop a neighborhood carpool list not just for getting to work, but also for going grocery shopping on weekends.
5. Allow individuals to keep chickens or goats for procuring eggs, meat and milk.
These are just a few ideas, I welcome anyone’s comments or additions to this list.
For more information on peak oil, check out http://www.peak-oil-crisis.com/
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2 comments:
Very inspiring ideas. I think change does begin at the neighborhood/Vcommunity level. Funny, my own first step would be to simply become more interested in my neighbors. I think that interdependent relationships with those living next door could be an initial challenge for a lot of people. I remember one day I ran out of sugar while baking, and attempted to "borrow" a cup from my neighbor. I was met with an unpleasant welcome, and awkward stares. Granted, most of my neighbors are Asian or Hispanic. There are some cultural hurdles to overcome with neighborhood interdependency as well as personality conflicts. Here in Southern California, for example, most people work too hard to have the time or the strength to relinquish the convenience of grocery shopping for backyard farming. I barely have the time to cleanmy own house once a month, let alone grown my own veggies...or can them! I'm not mocking the ideals here...just a little cynical about their practicality. Sometimes I feel that we have gone too far down a certain path of living, and there really is no way back short of complete upheaval of our lifestyles built on convenience and indulgence.
That's a great point, Patricia. I think many people share your sentiment. Why is it that we are so tired and burned out from our lives that we are dependent on grocery shopping and having to pay for our basic necessities? This change in thinking will have to take hold from the society level, not just from the individual level. You're right, most people feel that they don't have the time, resources, knowledge or inclination to grow their own vegetables or fruits.
Certainly many of our communities are not set up for this sort of activity. Yours, for example. You live in row townhomes with very little space for growing crops. On one hand, you're in a good position because you live within walking distance of a grocery store. On the other hand, you are still dependent on that grocery store for food.
It would be interesting to learn how similar shortages and crisis have played out in history and what people do to deal with it.
I guess when the shit hits the fan and it's a life or death crisis there's just two ways to go:
Change or die.
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